Actuals and model Forecasts are two separate things:
- The Forecasts that the model generates are based entirely on the values in the assumptions sheet, and are independent of any actuals you enter in the rows on the KPIs and Financial Statement sheets (e.g. P&L, Cash, Balance). The forecast is your “best estimate” of how things will evolve over time, and you will refine the assumptions driving that forecast as you learn more about how your business is performing. You can also think of the forecast as your “Budget” or “Plan”.
- The Actuals that you enter do not affect the model forecast. The main reason to enter the actuals is to provide a simple way of comparing your progress over time vs the forecast assumptions. Many companies like to compare Budget (forecast) vs Actuals in this way as it helps them understand how well everyone is delivering on the plan they signed up to. In your case, where you start to see big differences between actuals and forecasts, that is a good indication that the values in the assumptions sheet need adjusting so that the model gives you a better forecast going forward.